Player Projections
Two gradient-boosted models. The first projects next-season WS/48 and BPM for current NBA players. The second projects NBA career value for the 2026 draft class (and every other D-I player), with the conference / strength-of-schedule adjustment built in.
Showing 50 of 1,793 filtered (2,970 total).
| # | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb WilsonCombineNorth Carolina · ACC · Fr · PF/C · 6-10 | 57% | 99 | 19.8 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 5.31 | 4.58 | 91% | 100% | 17.1 | 15.56 |
| 2 | AJ DybantsaBYU · B12 · Fr · Wing F · 6-9 | 87% | 100 | 25.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 6.59 | 4.03 | 95% | 100% | 15.6 | 14.83 |
| 3 | Cameron BoozerCombineDuke · ACC · Fr · Stretch 4 · 6-9 | 84% | 100 | 22.5 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 7.59 | 5.64 | 97% | 100% | 14.4 | 13.90 |
| 4 | Nate AmentTennessee · SEC · Fr · Wing F · 6-10 | 70% | 99 | 16.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 3.79 | 4.20 | 85% | 100% | 13.6 | 11.59 |
| 5 | Kingston FlemingsCombineHouston · B12 · Fr · Scoring PG · 6-4 | 79% | 97 | 16.1 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.96 | 4.92 | 96% | 98% | 10.9 | 10.41 |
| 6 | Zuby EjioforCombineSt. John's · BE · Sr · PF/C · 6-9 | 75% | 89 | 16.3 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 4.96 | 4.55 | 74% | 97% | 13.4 | 9.90 |
| 7 | Hannes SteinbachCombineWashington · B10 · Fr · PF/C · 6-11 | 78% | 99 | 18.5 | 11.8 | 1.6 | 5.58 | 4.69 | 85% | 100% | 10.9 | 9.24 |
| 8 | Yaxel LendeborgCombineMichigan · B10 · Sr · Stretch 4 · 6-9 | 75% | — | 15.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 5.83 | 4.96 | 75% | 96% | 12.0 | 9.01 |
| 9 | Christian AndersonCombineTexas Tech · B12 · So · Pure PG · 6-3 | 93% | 77 | 18.5 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 6.11 | 4.48 | 89% | 98% | 9.7 | 8.63 |
| 10 | Shelton HendersonMiami FL · ACC · Fr · Wing G · 6-6 | 78% | 96 | 13.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 3.04 | 3.66 | 82% | 97% | 10.4 | 8.56 |
| 11 | Brayden BurriesCombineArizona · B12 · Fr · Wing G · 6-4 | 74% | 98 | 16.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 4.43 | 4.68 | 88% | 100% | 9.3 | 8.13 |
| 12 | Bennett StirtzCombineIowa · B10 · Sr · Scoring PG · 6-4 | 94% | — | 19.8 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 6.17 | 4.41 | 90% | 93% | 8.9 | 8.01 |
| 13 | Darius Acuff Jr.CombineArkansas · SEC · Fr · Scoring PG · 6-3 | 84% | 98 | 23.5 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 6.66 | 3.46 | 92% | 99% | 8.3 | 7.69 |
| 14 | Dailyn SwainCombineTexas · SEC · Jr · Wing F · 6-8 | 82% | 82 | 17.3 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 4.87 | 3.97 | 64% | 99% | 12.0 | 7.68 |
| 15 | Koa PeatCombineArizona · B12 · Fr · Wing F · 6-8 | 64% | 99 | 14.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 3.55 | 4.03 | 88% | 96% | 7.8 | 6.91 |
| 16 | Aday MaraCombineMichigan · B10 · Jr · C · 7-3 | 58% | 97 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 3.35 | 4.09 | 63% | 90% | 10.1 | 6.30 |
| 17 | Keaton WaglerCombineIllinois · B10 · Fr · Combo G · 6-6 | 84% | 53 | 17.9 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 6.46 | 4.23 | 68% | 99% | 9.1 | 6.16 |
| 18 | Pryce SandfortNebraska · B10 · Jr · Wing G · 6-7 | 83% | 83 | 18.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 5.06 | 4.79 | 45% | 84% | 13.6 | 6.12 |
| 19 | Chris Cenac JrHouston · B12 · Fr · PF/C · 6-11 | 62% | 99 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 2.52 | 4.22 | 78% | 97% | 7.6 | 5.96 |
| 20 | Labaron PhilonCombineAlabama · SEC · So · Scoring PG · 6-4 | 72% | 93 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 5.99 | 3.32 | 50% | 99% | 11.2 | 5.59 |
| 21 | Morez Johnson Jr.CombineMichigan · B10 · So · PF/C · 6-9 | 63% | 94 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 4.34 | 4.16 | 54% | 98% | 9.8 | 5.31 |
| 22 | Joshua JeffersonCombineIowa St. · B12 · Sr · Wing F · 6-9 | 73% | — | 16.4 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 4.40 | 5.07 | 53% | 93% | 9.3 | 4.89 |
| 23 | Tyler TannerCombineVanderbilt · SEC · So · Scoring PG · 6-0 | 83% | — | 19.5 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 5.77 | 4.32 | 34% | 100% | 14.5 | 4.87 |
| 24 | Ivan KharchenkovArizona · B12 · Fr · Wing G · 6-7 | 71% | 89 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 2.61 | 4.29 | 45% | 98% | 10.6 | 4.74 |
| 25 | Meleek ThomasCombineArkansas · SEC · Fr · Combo G · 6-5 | 75% | 98 | 15.6 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.89 | 3.39 | 79% | 98% | 4.9 | 3.88 |
| 26 | Flory BidungaCombineKansas · B12 · So · C · 6-9 | 78% | 97 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 4.37 | 4.95 | 35% | 96% | 11.0 | 3.81 |
| 27 | JT ToppinTexas Tech · B12 · Jr · PF/C · 6-9 | 64% | 78 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 5.26 | 4.97 | 43% | 74% | 8.8 | 3.78 |
| 28 | Tounde YessoufouCombineBaylor · B12 · Fr · Wing G · 6-5 | 82% | 97 | 17.8 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 4.04 | 3.58 | 69% | 99% | 5.4 | 3.77 |
| 29 | Alex CondonFlorida · SEC · Jr · PF/C · 6-11 | 74% | — | 15.1 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 3.82 | 4.61 | 34% | 96% | 10.8 | 3.67 |
| 30 | Baba MillerCombineCincinnati · B12 · Sr · PF/C · 6-11 | 75% | 89 | 13.0 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 3.29 | 5.17 | 35% | 86% | 9.9 | 3.45 |
| 31 | Ja'Kobi GillespieCombineTennessee · SEC · Sr · Pure PG · 6-1 | 86% | — | 18.4 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.01 | 4.78 | 36% | 78% | 9.2 | 3.27 |
| 32 | Jalen HaralsonNotre Dame · ACC · Fr · Wing G · 6-7 | 57% | 96 | 16.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 3.23 | 2.39 | 52% | 88% | 6.0 | 3.10 |
| 33 | Cameron CarrCombineBaylor · B12 · So · Wing G · 6-5 | 84% | 89 | 18.9 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 4.78 | 3.63 | 40% | 65% | 7.6 | 3.00 |
| 34 | Braylon MullinsConnecticut · BE · Fr · Wing G · 6-6 | 58% | 97 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 2.70 | 4.01 | 60% | 99% | 5.0 | 2.97 |
| 35 | Isaiah EvansCombineDuke · ACC · So · Wing G · 6-6 | 71% | 97 | 15.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 3.95 | 4.13 | 49% | 98% | 6.0 | 2.91 |
| 36 | Graham IkeGonzaga · WCC · Sr · PF/C · 6-9 | 69% | — | 19.9 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 4.93 | 4.88 | 32% | 38% | 8.6 | 2.75 |
| 37 | Ebuka OkorieCombineStanford · ACC · Fr · Scoring PG · 6-2 | 82% | 58 | 23.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 6.33 | 3.69 | 30% | 95% | 9.1 | 2.71 |
| 38 | Joseph TuglerHouston · B12 · Jr · PF/C · 6-8 | 59% | 86 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 2.86 | 3.90 | 23% | 95% | 11.1 | 2.58 |
| 39 | Henri VeesaarCombineNorth Carolina · ACC · Jr · Stretch 4 · 7-0 | 74% | 85 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 4.75 | 4.24 | 35% | 96% | 7.2 | 2.51 |
| 40 | Trey McKenneyMichigan · B10 · Fr · Wing G · 6-4 | 55% | 96 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 2.70 | 3.12 | 24% | 99% | 10.0 | 2.39 |
| 41 | Boogie FlandFlorida · SEC · So · Scoring PG · 6-3 | 75% | 96 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.82 | 4.27 | 37% | 99% | 6.4 | 2.35 |
| 42 | Trevon BrazileCombineArkansas · SEC · Sr · Stretch 4 · 6-10 | 76% | 63 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 3.72 | 4.08 | 26% | 97% | 8.8 | 2.31 |
| 43 | Thomas HaughFlorida · SEC · Jr · Wing F · 6-9 | 81% | 62 | 17.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 4.83 | 4.85 | 40% | 32% | 5.3 | 2.12 |
| 44 | Tarris Reed Jr.CombineConnecticut · BE · Sr · C · 6-10 | 59% | 93 | 14.7 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 4.27 | 4.63 | 21% | 74% | 10.3 | 2.10 |
| 45 | Malachi MorenoCombineKentucky · SEC · Fr · C · 7-0 | 56% | 95 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 2.56 | 3.05 | 43% | 13% | 4.8 | 2.03 |
| 46 | Cayden BoozerDuke · ACC · Fr · Scoring PG · 6-4 | 57% | 97 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.46 | 3.29 | 17% | 99% | 11.7 | 1.92 |
| 47 | Juke HarrisWake Forest · ACC · So · Wing G · 6-7 | 87% | 84 | 21.4 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 4.95 | 3.73 | 27% | 98% | 7.1 | 1.89 |
| 48 | Allen GravesCombineSanta Clara · WCC · Fr · Stretch 4 · 6-9 | 57% | — | 11.8 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 4.12 | 3.14 | 17% | 94% | 11.0 | 1.85 |
| 49 | Bruce ThorntonCombineOhio St. · B10 · Sr · Combo G · 6-2 | 90% | 91 | 19.9 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 7.23 | 4.19 | 21% | 99% | 8.2 | 1.68 |
| 50 | Milan MomcilovicCombineIowa St. · B12 · Jr · Wing F · 6-8 | 76% | 92 | 16.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 5.11 | 4.17 | 23% | 62% | 7.1 | 1.64 |
Projecting first-4-year NBA value for 25-26 college players · Draft-stock AUC 0.98 · WS Spearman 0.29 · How this works
Three stacked gradient-boosting models, scored together for every D-I player above the minute filter:
- Draft-stock classifier — P(this player gets drafted). Trained on 33,705 player-seasons of Torvik data (2014–2024), with the matching drafts.csv lookup giving a 1/0 label per season. Holdout (2023+2024 seasons) AUC 0.984, recall@top-5% 86% (87/6289 positives).
- Value regressor — if drafted, E[cumulative NBA Win Shares across first 4 seasons]. Standardized horizon means a 2014 pick and a 2022 pick are scored on the same outcome window (no career-length confound). Leave-one-draft-class-out CV across 2014–2022: MAE 5.19 (vs mean baseline 5.45), Spearman 0.29.
- Made-it classifier — P(played ≥500 NBA min in first 4 seasons | drafted). LODCO AUC 0.71, base rate 78%. Surfaced for interpretation alongside the value regressor.
The leaderboard Scorecolumn is P(drafted) × max(0, E[WS yr1-4]) — this combines "is this even a real prospect?" with "if drafted, how good?" The draft-stock term is what keeps the model from rewarding mid-major upperclassmen who happen to put up big numbers against weak competition.
Feature set (71 total): Torvik opponent-adjusted box + composite ratings, shot-diet (rim/mid/dunk rates), bio (height, age, class, HS recruit rank), multi-year trajectory deltas, role one-hots, and NBA Combine measurables (wingspan, standing reach, max vertical, lane agility, three-quarter sprint). Players who attended the combine are flagged in-row.
Data sources: Bart Torvik (barttorvik.com) advanced college stats; Basketball Reference (NBA advanced + per-game); NBA.com stats (draft combine anthro + drills). Model v2. Generated 2026-06-01T21:35:10Z. 2,970 prospects projected, 417 drafted players in the value-model training set.
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