Player Projections

Two gradient-boosted models. The first projects next-season WS/48 and BPM for current NBA players. The second projects NBA career value for the 2026 draft class (and every other D-I player), with the conference / strength-of-schedule adjustment built in.

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Player faces

Showing 50 of 379 filtered (465 total).

#
1	Nikola JokićDEN	30	2,265	0.316	0.290	-0.026	14.2	12.1	-2.1
2	Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC	27	2,259	0.323	0.289	-0.034	11.7	11.3	-0.4
3	Victor WembanyamaSAS	22	1,866	0.257	0.246	-0.011	10.7	9.0	-1.7
4	Luka DončićLAL	26	2,289	0.199	0.183	-0.016	9.3	7.6	-1.7
5	Kawhi LeonardLAC	34	2,085	0.212	0.184	-0.028	8.0	6.3	-1.7
6	Cade CunninghamDET	24	2,172	0.174	0.160	-0.014	6.3	5.9	-0.4
7	Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL	31	1,039	0.231	0.181	-0.050	9.5	5.6	-3.9
8	Alperen ŞengünHOU	23	2,398	0.161	0.169	+0.008	4.2	4.3	+0.1
9	Jalen DurenDET	22	1,976	0.266	0.228	-0.038	5.0	4.1	-0.9
10	Deni AvdijaPOR	25	2,199	0.152	0.136	-0.016	4.3	4.1	-0.2
11	Anthony EdwardsMIN	24	2,137	0.147	0.149	+0.003	4.5	4.1	-0.4
12	Jamal MurrayDEN	28	2,652	0.173	0.133	-0.040	4.1	4.0	-0.1
13	LeBron JamesLAL	41	1,989	0.131	0.133	+0.002	3.5	4.0	+0.5
14	Stephen CurryGSW	37	1,329	0.147	0.143	-0.004	5.4	3.9	-1.5
15	Donovan MitchellCLE	29	2,342	0.169	0.159	-0.011	5.1	3.8	-1.3
16	Amen ThompsonHOU	23	2,953	0.167	0.164	-0.003	2.6	3.8	+1.2
17	Cooper FlaggDAL	19	2,344	0.078	0.115	+0.037	1.4	3.8	+2.4
18	Jimmy ButlerGSW	36	1,182	0.233	0.208	-0.025	5.5	3.7	-1.8
19	Tyrese MaxeyPHI	25	2,661	0.156	0.153	-0.003	5.4	3.6	-1.8
20	Jalen JohnsonATL	24	2,532	0.141	0.127	-0.014	4.2	3.6	-0.6
21	James Harden2TM	36	2,438	0.151	0.145	-0.006	3.9	3.6	-0.3
22	Karl-Anthony TownsNYK	30	2,322	0.197	0.175	-0.022	3.3	3.4	+0.1
23	LaMelo BallCHO	24	2,017	0.147	0.114	-0.033	4.7	3.4	-1.3
24	Jayson TatumBOS	27	522	0.148	0.152	+0.004	4.8	3.3	-1.5
25	Kon KnueppelCHO	20	2,551	0.151	0.148	-0.003	2.8	3.1	+0.3
26	Paul ReedDET	26	901	0.239	0.217	-0.022	5.3	3.1	-2.2
27	Evan MobleyCLE	24	2,074	0.150	0.152	+0.002	3.0	3.0	+0.0
28	Josh GiddeyCHI	23	1,731	0.090	0.122	+0.032	2.7	2.9	+0.2
29	Joel EmbiidPHI	31	1,201	0.163	0.172	+0.009	4.9	2.9	-2.0
30	Jalen WilliamsOKC	24	936	0.156	0.151	-0.005	2.1	2.7	+0.6
31	Zion WilliamsonNOP	25	1,841	0.159	0.154	-0.005	2.9	2.7	-0.2
32	Trey Murphy IIINOP	25	2,341	0.123	0.111	-0.012	2.4	2.7	+0.3
33	Immanuel QuickleyTOR	26	2,231	0.140	0.138	-0.002	2.4	2.6	+0.2
34	Donovan ClinganPOR	21	2,094	0.197	0.174	-0.023	3.0	2.4	-0.6
35	Anthony DavisDAL	32	626	0.103	0.121	+0.018	2.4	2.4	-0.0
36	Jaylin WilliamsOKC	23	1,277	0.155	0.142	-0.013	2.7	2.3	-0.4
37	Devin BookerPHO	29	2,146	0.145	0.113	-0.032	2.2	2.3	+0.1
38	Kristaps Porziņģis2TM	30	769	0.148	0.168	+0.020	1.9	2.3	+0.4
39	Payton PritchardBOS	28	2,556	0.160	0.148	-0.012	2.3	2.2	-0.1
40	Jarrett AllenCLE	27	1,519	0.202	0.187	-0.015	2.6	2.2	-0.4
41	Stephon CastleSAS	21	2,038	0.136	0.108	-0.028	1.9	2.2	+0.3
42	Mikal BridgesNYK	29	2,692	0.143	0.118	-0.025	2.7	2.1	-0.6
43	Paolo BancheroORL	23	2,502	0.095	0.112	+0.017	1.4	2.1	+0.7
44	Kevin DurantHOU	37	2,840	0.180	0.127	-0.053	4.5	2.1	-2.4
45	Chet HolmgrenOKC	23	1,997	0.219	0.180	-0.039	4.2	2.1	-2.1
46	Keyonte GeorgeUTA	22	1,786	0.088	0.116	+0.028	0.9	2.1	+1.2
47	Franz WagnerORL	24	1,019	0.134	0.129	-0.005	2.5	2.0	-0.5
48	Ivica Zubac2TM	28	1,446	0.139	0.171	+0.032	-0.3	2.0	+2.3
49	Isaiah HartensteinOKC	27	1,137	0.223	0.188	-0.035	4.2	2.0	-2.2
50	Derrick WhiteBOS	31	2,625	0.129	0.115	-0.014	3.2	2.0	-1.2

Hover a projected cell for the 80% confidence band. Δ columns show projected minus current. Trained on 2,685 player-seasons with 69 features per row.

Projecting 26-27 from 25-26 actuals · WS/48 MAE 0.034 (baseline 0.034) · BPM MAE 1.61 (baseline 1.69) · How this works

A gradient-boosted regression model predicts each current NBA player's WS/48 and BPM in 26-27. Inputs are this season's rate stats (PER, USG, TS%, AST%, TRB%, STL%, BLK%, TOV%, 3PAr, FTr, per-game splits), aging features (age, age², career-year), and a one-year lag of the same vector to capture trend. Trained on 2,685 player-seasons spanning 2017–2023; validated on 24-25 actuals (340 players).

Versus a naïve "next year = this year" baseline the model improves WS/48 MAE by 1% and BPM MAE by 4%. Spearman rank correlation: WS/48 0.64, BPM 0.66— i.e. it rank-orders next year's top performers with real signal beyond noise.

Generated 2026-06-01T18:44:28Z. 465 players projected (≥200 minutes in 25-26).