NBA Value Explorer

25-26 · Regular Season

Insights

The same data the Explorer carries, processed two ways. Year-over-year changes are weighted by sample-size noise, so big jumps on thin minutes don't hijack the leaderboards. Shooting rates are shrunken toward a league prior — the whiskers on the scatter are the honest version of “how confident are we in that percentage?”

Year-over-year movers · Impact

Who actually moved between 24-25 and 25-26

Two box-score summaries of value, on different scales. Ranked by z = Δ / SE(Δ).

Risers

BPM risers

ranked by z
  • Stephon Castle
    SAS·-3.2 → 1.9
    +5.1
    z = 8.9
  • Javonte Green
    DET·-2.3 → 2.1
    +4.4
    z = 7.7
  • Xavier Tillman Sr.
    2TM·-8.1 → -1.8
    +6.3
    z = 7.1
  • Reed Sheppard
    HOU·-1.7 → 2.7
    +4.4
    z = 7.1
  • Spencer Jones
    DEN·-8.5 → -2.4
    +6.1
    z = 6.8
Risers

PER risers

ranked by z
  • Micah Potter
    IND·8.5 → 17.0
    +8.5
    z = 7.8
  • Kawhi Leonard
    LAC·20.5 → 27.9
    +7.4
    z = 7.2
  • Alex Sarr
    WAS·12.9 → 19.4
    +6.5
    z = 6.9
  • Xavier Tillman Sr.
    2TM·2.4 → 11.0
    +8.6
    z = 6.8
  • Reed Sheppard
    HOU·9.7 → 15.7
    +6.0
    z = 6.8
Fallers

BPM fallers

ranked by z
  • Tari Eason
    HOU·3.6 → -1.6
    -5.2
    z = -8.0
  • Moritz Wagner
    ORL·4.0 → -2.2
    -6.2
    z = -7.2
  • Khris Middleton
    2TM·0.7 → -4.4
    -5.1
    z = -7.0
  • Jeff Green
    HOU·0.4 → -5.6
    -6.0
    z = -6.7
  • Cole Anthony
    MIL·0.1 → -4.7
    -4.8
    z = -6.6
Fallers

PER fallers

ranked by z
  • Tyus Jones
    3TM·14.5 → 8.3
    -6.2
    z = -7.5
  • Josh Okogie
    HOU·16.3 → 9.9
    -6.4
    z = -6.6
  • Daniel Gafford
    DAL·24.7 → 18.8
    -5.9
    z = -6.2
  • Tari Eason
    HOU·18.5 → 12.9
    -5.6
    z = -6.1
  • Cameron Johnson
    DEN·18.2 → 12.8
    -5.4
    z = -5.7

Shrinkage scatter · 25-26 regular season

Rate metrics with confidence intervals

200 of 582 players on chart

Vertical whiskers are the 95% credible interval on the Y metric. Short whisker = enough sample to trust the rate; tall whisker = headline number is noisy. Dots sit at the shrunken posterior mean, not the raw rate. Hover for the X-axis interval when applicable.

Sources: Basketball-Reference advanced & per-game · stats.nba.com.